The Big 10's dream came true last Saturday when Ohio State handily defeated Penn State, setting up an unofficial conference championship game for the league's Rose Bowl berth in the Horseshoe against Iowa this Saturday. The Hawkeyes had their eyes on much more, specifically the BCS title game, a week ago. But oh how things change in a hurry. Starting QB Ricky Stanzi hurt his ankle on Saturday, will miss the rest of the regular season, and Northwestern pulled off an upset, dropping Iowa from the rank of the unbeatens. Regardless of the turn of fortune in Iowa City over the past few days, this game will still decide the Big 10, and is my game of the week.
For the Hawkeyes to have any chance of winning this game, they are going to need true freshman James Vandenberg to play a heck of a lot better in relief of Stanzi than he did against the Wildcats. They are also going to need solid production out of the running game, something that has not happened since Adam Robinson went down for the season with an injury a couple weeks back. This will be a tall task against a strong defense in a hostile environment.
Ohio State clearly has their chests out after playing a complete game in Happy Valley, but they cannot get too confident against an Iowa team that may be down, but is not out. Terrelle Pryor, as usual, holds the key. If he doesn't turn it over, the Buckeyes should win. If he does, Iowa may go back home with an upset. This will be a defensive game, but I think based on what transpired this past weekend, I have to go with Ohio State 24-10. Momentum is on their side.
Oh by the way, this will be another important Big 10 game relegated to regional 3:30 coverage against an SEC game on CBS. I complained about the Ohio State-Penn State game being at 3:30 last week, and apparently there is a reason. The Big 10 does not allow night games in November. What the hell? Is this 1959? Are they afraid the town troublemakers are going to go around pillaging while everyone is in the stadium under the dark of night? No wonder a lot of people think this league is antiquated: slow white guys at skill positions, vanilla offenses, and no night games at the pinnacle of the season.
Elsewhere this week, I would keep my eyes on these other games:
-TCU at Utah: The Horned Frogs are currently in a position for their first BCS at-large bid, but they still face one major hurdle: a trip to Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City to face the only other undefeated team in MWC play. The Utes would also be in a position for the chance of a second consecutive BCS berth had they not lost at Oregon early in the year, but a win here would put them in the driver's seat to at least win the league crown. Boise State is probably about the biggest fan of Utah right now, considering how I don't believe the BCS is going to select two mid-majors, even if their rankings warrant doing so. I like TCU's defense, and I think they make a statement in a 21-17 win.
-West Virginia at Cinncinnati: These next four games are interesting contests that could turn into upsets for the remaining unbeatens. The Mountaineers are no pushover, and can score in a hurry with guys at the skill positions like Noel Devine and Jock Sanders. And the Bearcats are coming off what had to be a draining 47-45 win over UConn on a slightly short week. This game is on Friday the 13th, so anything can happen.
-Stanford at USC: With Oregon losing to the Cardinal last week, it has opened the door back up for these two teams in the Pac 10 race, although the Oregon-Arizona game next week will still likely be the one that determines who goes to the Rose Bowl and who does not. Stanford proved themselves as legit last week, but could still use a big road win. They are 1-3 away from home this season (6-3 overall), and that win came against a Washington State team that would probably lose to a few high school squads out there. And SC is obviously looking for revenge after the embarrassing loss to the Cardinal at home two years ago, when Stanford was one of FBS' worst teams, and the Trojans one of the best (USC did win in Stanford 45-23 in 2008).
-Florida at South Carolina: The Gators' offense has struggled this year without Percy Harvin and Louis Murphy, especially in the red zone. Who is Superman now, Tebow? And the Gamecocks have a pretty good defense. If they can find a way to score some points against Florida's own tough D, this one could be an upset in the making.
-Alabama at Mississippi State: MSU is probably not going to go to a bowl in Dan Mullen's first
season, but they have been competitive. I see them giving Bama some trouble, much like they did against Florida. And the Tide may be still recovering from the big win over LSU, while looking ahead to the Iron Bowl in two weeks (they play Chattanooga next week, but I don't foresee any issues there).
-Georgia Tech at Duke: Tech clinches the ACC Coastal's berth in the conference title game with a victory, but this is not your older brother's creampuff Duke team. They are 5-4, 3-2 in ACC play, and have earned a game on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2 for the first time I recall in the roughly 15 years I have followed the ACC. The bad news: thanks to scheduling two FCS opponents, they have to win seven to be bowl eligible, and Miami is also on the remaining schedule. Surely the world is going to end in 2012: Duke currently has a better record than Florida State.
THURSDAY 11/12:
Ball State at Northern Illinois, 6 (ESPNU)
#23 South Florida at Rutgers, 7:30 (ESPN)
FRIDAY 11/13:
West Virginia at #5 Cincinnati, 8 (ESPN2)
Temple at Akron, 8:30 (ESPNU)
SATURDAY 11/14:
Tennessee at Ole Miss, 12 (CBS)
Michigan State at Purdue, 12 (ESPN)
#7 Georgia Tech at Duke, 12 (ESPN2)
Florida State at Wake Forest, 12 (ESPNU)
Northwestern at Illinois, 12 (ESPN Classic)
#13 Houston at UCF, 12 (CBS College)
#2 Texas at Baylor, 12 (FSN)
Indiana at #19 Penn State, 12 (BTN)
Michigan at #21 Wisconsin, 12 (BTN)
South Dakota State at Minnesota, 12 (BTN)
Missouri at Kansas State, 12:30 (Versus)
#22 BYU at New Mexico, 2 (The Mtn)
#1 Florida at South Carolina, 3:30 (CBS)
#15 Iowa at #10 Ohio State, 3:30 (ABC/ESPN)
#12 Miami (FL) at North Carolina, 3:30 (ESPN/ABC)
Nebraska at Kansas, 3:30 (ABC)
#25 Stanford at #11 USC, 3:30 (FSN)
Idaho at #6 Boise State, 3:30 (ESPNU)
Delaware at Navy, 3:30 (CBS College)
UNLV at Air Force, 6 (The Mtn)
#3 Alabama at Mississippi State, 7 (ESPN)
Auburn at Georgia, 7 (ESPN2)
Texas A&M at Oklahoma, 7 (FSN)
#18 Arizona at California, 7 (Versus)
Louisiana Tech at #9 LSU, 7 (ESPNU)
#16 Utah at #4 TCU, 7:30 (CBS College)
Notre Dame at #8 Pittsburgh, 8 (ABC)
Texas Tech at #17 Oklahoma State, 8 (ABC)
Wyoming at San Diego State, 10 (The Mtn)
Arizona State at #14 Oregon, 10:15 (ESPN)
Rest of the top 25: #20 Virginia Tech at Maryland; #24 Clemson at NC State
